The Nordic M&A market entered 2026 with strong momentum despite an unusually uncertain geopolitical backdrop. EY reports 263 announced Norwegian transactions in Q1 2026, the strongest first quarter on record, signaling that dealmaking remains resilient and structurally supported by consolidation, digital transformation and strategic repositioning. Average disclosed deal value reached $237 million, boosted by several large cap transactions, even as the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz increased global volatility.

Private equity remains a central force. Although PE participation moderated to 21% of deals, activity is still dominated by buy and build strategies in asset light sectors such as business services, accounting, technical services and software. Exit markets remain constrained, widening the valuation gap between buyers and sellers and reinforcing platform driven consolidation.

Sector-wise, Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility was the most active category, while TMT and software continued to attract significant interest. EY highlights a notable slowdown in SaaS transactions as investor focus shifts toward AI driven platforms, which increasingly capture value by replacing traditional per seat SaaS economics. This aligns with Nordhaven’s findings: in Q3 2025, 72-74% of Nordic software deals were PE-driven, and deal volumes reached their highest level since 2021, with 46 transactions in the quarter and 151 over the last twelve months, a 35% YoY increase.

Valuations remain bifurcated. Nordhaven reports median EV/Sales multiples of 6.4x for international software companies and 4.9x for Nordic peers, with carve outs becoming more common as corporates streamline portfolios. Nordic buyers accounted for roughly half of software acquisitions, while North American and broader European investors increased their share.

Despite macro uncertainty, our conclusion is that capital availability, strong pipelines and structural digitalisation trends will continue to support Nordic M&A activity in the tech sector through 2026, albeit with heightened selectivity and valuation discipline.